Sequence-based hazard analysis for Italy considering a grid seismic source model

Earthquakes are usually clustered in both time and space and, within each cluster, the event of highest magnitude is conventionally identified as mainshock, while foreshocks aftershocks events that occur before after it, respectively. Mainshocks earthquakes considered classical formulation probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), where contribution neglected. In fact, it has been shown possible to rigorously, hypotheses model, account for effect mainshock-aftershocks sequences by means sequence-based PSHA (i.e., SPSHA). SPSHA extends usability homogeneous Poisson process, adopted mainshocks PSHA, also describe occurrence clusters maintaining same input data PSHA; i.e., rates derived a declustered catalog. The aftershocks’ occurrences accounted conditional non-homogeneous processes based on modified Omori law. source model Italy recently investigated, objective study herein presented include evaluate aftershocks, SPSHA, new grid model. paper, results compared, considering spectral return periods typical interest earthquake engineering. Finally, comparison with map well- established provided.